# WashData - Home Assistant integration for appliance cycle monitoring via smart plugs. # Copyright (C) 2026 Lukas Bandura # SPDX-License-Identifier: AGPL-3.0-or-later # # This program is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify # it under the terms of the GNU Affero General Public License as published # by the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or # (at your option) any later version. # # This program is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, # but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of # MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the # GNU Affero General Public License for more details. # # You should have received a copy of the GNU Affero General Public License # along with this program. If not, see . """On-device, NumPy-only model training for WashData (Stage 4). Since 0.5.8 only the ``total_energy`` regressor is trained on-device (:func:`fit_ridge` + :func:`build_regression_spec`, scored by :func:`predict_value_spec`). The classifier training and the logistic spec scoring that used to live here went with the on-device classifier heads (register items 419, 518); the classifiers run their shipped baselines only. No new dependencies: NumPy only. Nothing here runs unless the caller (behind the ``ENABLE_ML_TRAINING`` flag) invokes it. """ from __future__ import annotations from typing import Any, Mapping, Sequence import numpy as np # Matches wash_ml/promotion.py so a trained spec is interchangeable with the # shipped bundles and could be rendered into a *_model.py if ever needed. PROMOTION_SCHEMA = "washdata.promoted_model/1" # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Regression head (standardized_linear) - the total_energy regressor. # # A ridge-regularised linear regressor over standardised features with a # standardised target; prediction un-standardises back to target units using the # spec's ``output_center``/``output_scale``. Same JSON-serialisable spec schema as # the shipped logistic bundles, scored with :func:`predict_matrix_spec` (no # sigmoid). # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- def fit_ridge( matrix: np.ndarray, labels: np.ndarray, *, alpha: float = 1.0, ) -> dict[str, np.ndarray | float]: """Fit a standardised ridge-regression head via NumPy normal equations. Standardises features (mean/std) and the target, solves ``(ZᵀZ + αI) w = Zᵀ y_std`` in closed form, and returns ``{center, scale, coef, bias, y_center, y_scale}``. Because both the standardised features and the centred target are zero-mean, the intercept in standardised space is 0. Prediction is ``((x - center)/scale) @ coef * y_scale + y_center``. """ matrix = np.asarray(matrix, dtype=float) labels = np.asarray(labels, dtype=float) if matrix.ndim != 2 or matrix.shape[0] == 0: raise ValueError("matrix must be a non-empty 2D array") if labels.shape[0] != matrix.shape[0]: raise ValueError("labels/matrix row mismatch") if np.std(labels) < 1e-8: raise ValueError( f"fit_ridge requires non-constant targets; " f"all labels are approximately {labels[0]:.4f}" ) center = np.mean(matrix, axis=0) scale = np.std(matrix, axis=0) scale = np.where(scale <= 1e-8, 1.0, scale) scaled = (matrix - center) / scale y_center = float(np.mean(labels)) y_scale = float(np.std(labels)) if y_scale <= 1e-9: y_scale = 1.0 y_std = (labels - y_center) / y_scale n_features = scaled.shape[1] gram = scaled.T @ scaled + float(alpha) * np.eye(n_features) rhs = scaled.T @ y_std try: coef = np.linalg.solve(gram, rhs) except np.linalg.LinAlgError: coef = np.linalg.lstsq(gram, rhs, rcond=None)[0] return { "center": center, "scale": scale, "coef": coef, "bias": 0.0, "y_center": y_center, "y_scale": y_scale, } def regression_metrics(labels: np.ndarray, predictions: np.ndarray) -> dict[str, Any]: """MAE / RMSE / R² for a regression fit (pure NumPy).""" labels = np.asarray(labels, dtype=float) predictions = np.asarray(predictions, dtype=float) if labels.size == 0: return {} err = predictions - labels mae = float(np.mean(np.abs(err))) rmse = float(np.sqrt(np.mean(err ** 2))) ss_res = float(np.sum(err ** 2)) ss_tot = float(np.sum((labels - float(np.mean(labels))) ** 2)) r2 = float(1.0 - ss_res / ss_tot) if ss_tot > 1e-12 else 0.0 return { "rows": int(labels.size), "mae": round(mae, 6), "rmse": round(rmse, 6), "r2": round(r2, 6), } def predict_matrix_spec(spec: Mapping[str, Any], matrix: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray: """Regression predictions (target units) for a (rows, features) matrix.""" matrix = np.asarray(matrix, dtype=float) if matrix.size == 0: return np.empty(0, dtype=float) center = np.asarray(spec["center"], dtype=float) scale = np.asarray(spec["scale"], dtype=float) coef = np.asarray(spec["coef"], dtype=float) y_std = ((matrix - center) / scale) @ coef + float(spec.get("bias", 0.0)) y_center = float(spec.get("output_center", 0.0)) y_scale = float(spec.get("output_scale", 1.0)) return y_std * y_scale + y_center def predict_value_spec(spec: Mapping[str, Any], features: Mapping[str, float]) -> float: """Un-standardised regression output for one feature mapping. Missing feature keys are filled with the training center (which standardises to 0.0 = neutral), not raw 0.0, to avoid 8+ SD corruption of inference. """ columns = spec["feature_columns"] center = np.asarray(spec["center"], dtype=float) row = [] for i, col in enumerate(columns): val = features.get(col) row.append(float(center[i]) if val is None else float(val)) vector = np.array(row, dtype=float) return float(predict_matrix_spec(spec, vector.reshape(1, -1))[0]) def build_regression_spec( *, name: str, target: str, feature_columns: Sequence[str], fit: Mapping[str, Any], target_units: str = "", metrics: Mapping[str, Any] | None = None, trained_at: str = "", cycle_count: int = 0, ) -> dict[str, Any]: """Assemble a ``standardized_linear`` regression spec (JSON-serialisable). Scored by :func:`predict_matrix_spec` / :func:`predict_value_spec` with math that mirrors :func:`fit_ridge`. ``threshold`` is retained (0.0) only so the spec shape stays uniform with the classifier bundles. """ return { "schema": PROMOTION_SCHEMA, "name": name, "kind": "standardized_linear", "target": target, "target_units": target_units, "feature_columns": list(feature_columns), "center": [round(float(v), 8) for v in np.asarray(fit["center"], dtype=float)], "scale": [round(float(v), 8) for v in np.asarray(fit["scale"], dtype=float)], "coef": [round(float(v), 8) for v in np.asarray(fit["coef"], dtype=float)], "bias": round(float(fit.get("bias", 0.0)), 8), "threshold": 0.0, "output_center": round(float(fit["y_center"]), 8), "output_scale": round(float(fit["y_scale"]), 8), "metrics": dict(metrics or {}), "notes": ["Trained on-device from the user's own labelled cycles."], "created_at": trained_at, "cycle_count": int(cycle_count), "source": "on_device", }